Gaetz-McCarthy Rivalry at Center of Florida House Primary

The long-running rivalry between Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will come to a head Tuesday when Gaetz faces a primary opponent backed by McCarthy.

Gaetz will face Republican Aaron Dimmock, a retired Navy pilot who was backed by McCarthy. The race is personal for the former House speaker: McCarthy was ousted after Gaetz and seven other House Republicans joined all Democrats in voting to remove him from his leadership post last fall.

The Freedom Patriots PAC, which is tied to McCarthy allies, spent $3 million to support Dimmock and attack Gaetz in a since-closed Justice Department investigation into his alleged involvement in the sex trafficking of a 17-year-old girl. Gaetz, who has repeatedly denied the allegations, remains under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for alleged sexual misconduct and illegal drug use.

He personally blames McCarthy for the House investigation.

“I typically have a financial advantage when I run,” Gaetz told NPR on Friday. “I'm going to be outspent in this election by a factor of 3 or 4 to 1 because Kevin McCarthy has mobilized the millions of dollars he has in his political committees to advertise against me.”

McCarthy's allies aim for 2026, with Dimmock likely to lose

Dimmock will face an uphill battle to defeat the hard-line candidate. Gaetz won the last House election by well over the 50 percent majority needed and is on pace to do so again. A July poll by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates found Gaetz with 67 percent of the vote to Dimmock’s 20 percent.

“In Northwest Florida, Gaetz's name is even more important than it would be, say, in Washington, in the sense that his father was president of the Senate,” Republican strategist Ford O'Connor told the Washington Examiner“When it comes to Northwest Florida, Matt Gaetz is a household name.”

McCarthy supporters are now looking to a longer-term goal, ahead of Dimmock's defeat in Tuesday's primary. They hope the negative ad campaign against Gaetz will hurt his chances of becoming Florida governor in 2026, according to ABC News.

Eyes are already on Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody to lead the Republican primary race for governor, and some expect Gaetz to be in the race. However, Gaetz has rejected claims that he will run for statewide office this cycle.

“I have no plans to run for governor,” Gaetz said in a message posted to X on Monday. “I love my job and I want to help President Trump in Washington. If those plans change, I hope I have opposition as incompetent as these idiots,” referring to the Freedom Patriots PAC.

A Florida Republican strategist told the Washington Examiner that this primary is a case of McCarthy allies trying to “test messages to hurt Matt Gaetz as he tries to move to a bigger stage.” But, the strategist noted, that doesn't hold up in Gaetz's 1st Congressional District.

“I don’t think it’s impacted in North Florida. That’s Gaetz country,” the strategist said. “I think what they’re seeing is that nothing is really working with those voters. Now, could that change across Florida? Yes, because obviously Florida is very different, particularly South Florida.”

While allies of the former House speaker have pledged millions of dollars to support Dimmock, McCarthy's leadership PAC has not directly contributed to Dimmock's campaign, as it has to opponents of other Republicans who voted to oust him.

The Florida strategist said McCarthy was withholding funds for Dimmock, likely to avoid giving Gaetz “all the poster material” he needs.

“Remember, House Speaker McCarthy is not very popular with Republican primary voters,” the strategist added.

Gaetz took the opposite view, telling ABC News that he would win the primary because “people in Washington, California and Missouri don't really understand the connection I have to people in Northwest Florida.”

Dimmock's campaign said in a statement to Washington Examiner that the retired naval officer knew his race would be difficult given the short time he had to campaign.

“Aaron entered this race less than four months ago to offer Northwest Florida an alternative to the chaos and embarrassment of Matt Gaetz’s tenure in Congress,” Dimmock’s campaign said. “It’s no secret that building a campaign from the ground up against a career politician is not easy, but that goal has never wavered. Since we began this campaign, we’ve met and heard from thousands of Congressman Gaetz’s constituents who are ready for new leadership, and we look forward to seeing them make their voices heard at the ballot box.”

McCarthy's Revenge Tour Gets Mixed Review

The impeachment of McCarthy, who resigned from Congress in December, exposed a sharp division within the GOP conference between radical Republicans and establishment lawmakers, with several House races this cycle reflecting the consequences of that fracture.

Gaetz’s campaign is just one of many steps in McCarthy’s campaign, which is taking on the eight Republican members of the House who voted to remove him from office. He won a big victory in Virginia, where House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-VA) lost his primary and then a recount to Republican John McGuire, a former Navy SEAL.

However, McCarthy and his allies failed to unseat most of the eight candidates: Reps. Nancy Mace (R-SC) and Eli Crane (R-AZ) defeated their opponents in the primaries, former Colorado Rep. Ken Buck and Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) decided not to run again, and Reps. Andy Biggs (R-TN) and Tim Burchett (R-TN) ran unopposed in primaries.

There are some parallels between the Gaetz and Good campaigns when it comes to donations from House colleagues to their opponents. Rep. Dave Joyce's (R-OH) campaign donated to Dimmock, according to the Hill.

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In Good’s race for president, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) and Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, were among the Republicans who endorsed McGuire. Van Orden, in particular, has not been shy about sharing his dislike for Good and Gaetz, calling them “bully bullies” and looking forward to seeing them leave Congress.

THE Washington Examiner contacted Dimmock's campaign for comment.